Some of the biggest price moves of the week come in the seconds after a scheduled economic release. Knowing when the main releases are due helps you make sense of sudden moves on the chart, and explains why the lines on TOUCH and SPREAD trades are sometimes further away than usual.
Which releases matter most
The figures that move currencies most are the ones that change what the market expects from interest rates. The main ones are:
- central bank interest rate decisions, and the press conferences that follow them;
- employment figures, above all the US jobs report (nonfarm payrolls), which normally comes out on the first Friday of the month;
- inflation figures, such as the consumer price index (CPI);
- retail sales and GDP.
Release dates are published well in advance by the central banks and national statistics offices, and you'll find the upcoming ones in the economic calendar on the zentrader website.
What happens around a release
The market often goes quiet in the minutes before a big release, as traders wait for the numbers. Once they're out, the price can jump sharply within seconds, in either direction, and sometimes reverse just as quickly. The biggest moves tend to come when a figure is far from what the market expected. Prices can also stay unsettled for a while afterwards, especially after a central bank decision, when the press conference can move the market again.
The main releases and when they come out
Times are in UTC, with Japan time in brackets.
| Currency | Main releases | Usual time |
|---|---|---|
| US dollar | Jobs report, CPI, retail sales and GDP; jobless claims every Thursday | 13:30 (22:30) |
| Federal Reserve (FOMC) rate decision, followed by a press conference | 19:00 (4:00 the next day) | |
| Japanese yen | Bank of Japan rate decision, followed by the Governor's press conference in the afternoon | No fixed time; usually between 2:00 and 4:30 (11:00 and 13:30) |
| National CPI, Tokyo CPI and the quarterly Tankan survey | 23:30 to 23:50 (8:30 to 8:50 the next day) | |
| Euro | European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision, followed by a press conference | 13:15 (22:15) |
| Euro area inflation, first estimate | 10:00 (19:00) | |
| British pound | Bank of England rate decision | 12:00 (21:00) |
| UK inflation and employment figures | 7:00 (16:00) | |
| Australian dollar | Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision, followed by a press conference | 3:30 (12:30) |
| Australian employment and inflation figures | 0:30 (9:30) | |
| New Zealand dollar | Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision, followed by a press conference | 1:00 (10:00) |
| New Zealand GDP | 21:45 (6:45 the next day) | |
| Canadian dollar | Bank of Canada rate decision | 14:45 (23:45) |
| Canadian employment and inflation figures | 13:30 (22:30) | |
| Swiss franc | Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision | 8:30 (17:30) |
These times apply in the northern winter. From about March to October, daylight saving time brings US, Canadian, UK and European releases an hour earlier, and from about April to September, Australian and New Zealand releases come an hour later.
Which assets move
US figures can move every currency pair, as well as gold and cryptocurrencies, because so much of the market is priced in US dollars. Other releases mainly move the pairs that include that currency: Japanese figures move USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and the other yen pairs, for example, and Australian figures move AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.
Synthetic indices are the exception. They aren't tied to any real market, and each one moves at its own set level of volatility at any hour, so economic news doesn't affect them. See What are synthetic indices?
How news affects your trades
On TOUCH and SPREAD trades, the lines are set by how much the price is expected to move, so around major releases they can be a good deal further from the price than usual, even before the figures come out. The lines you see on the chart when you buy are the lines your trade uses. See Why are the TOUCH and SPREAD lines further away at times?
HIGH/LOW trades are judged against the price you buy at, so there are no lines to move. Whatever the trade type, the payout is shown before you buy and fixed once you enter; the payouts on offer can change when markets are very volatile, but a trade you've already opened always settles at its own payout. See Do payouts change?
At the moment of a release, the price can also move in the short time it takes your order to reach our server. A small move fills at the new price, while a large one is rejected, so that you're never filled far from the price you saw. See My trade didn't go through.
Related: When is the best time to trade? · Why are the TOUCH and SPREAD lines further away at times? · What are synthetic indices? · Trading hours